Wine Bar Break-Even Analysis: ~$56K Monthly Revenue Target

Fixed costs $15.4K Monthly overhead

Contribution margin 81% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $19.1K Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 4 Model breakeven

Break-even calculator

Test how monthly wine bar revenue, variable costs, and fixed overhead stack up against break-even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the pool that pays direct costs and leaves room for fixed overhead. $ Slow month Busy month Variable expenses These are direct costs like wine, card fees, and promo spend that rise with sales. $ Lean costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $51,500 $64,000 revenue - $12,500 variable expenses

Margin ratio

80%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead the bar must cover before profit starts. $ Lean setup Larger base

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which bar expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even is only useful when fixed overhead is separated from sales-linked spending. Here, rent and core admin stay fixed, while ingredients and card fees move with sales volume.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Real Estate Lease	Fixed	Include the $10,000 monthly lease in fixed overhead before calculating required sales.	Treating rent as variable because traffic changes by day.
Business Insurance	Fixed	Include the $500 monthly premium in baseline overhead.	Leaving small fixed items out of break-even coverage.
Property Taxes	Fixed	Include the $700 monthly amount as fixed occupancy overhead.	Grouping it with sales taxes instead of operating overhead.
Point-of-Sale and App Maintenance	Fixed	Include the $800 monthly system charge in fixed overhead.	Modeling it as a payment fee tied to each sale.
Food and Beverage Ingredients	Variable	Apply the ingredient percentage to sales; first-year assumption is 10.0% of revenue.	Using inventory purchases instead of pour cost and plate cost.
Payment Processing Fees	Variable	Apply card fees to revenue; first-year assumption is 2.5% of sales.	Forgetting that higher sales also raise processing fees.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Start with the $1,500 monthly base, then watch usage as traffic and kitchen hours rise.	Treating the full bill as fixed during high-volume months.
Service Crew	Semi-fixed	Model payroll in staffing steps; service crew rises from 4.0 FTE in the first year to 8.0 FTE in the fifth year.	Ignoring payroll in fixed coverage until hiring happens.

How does break-even move from a lean launch to a full wine bar format?

Scenario table

Here’s the quick math: the lean case clears break-even with a modest cushion, the base case is the cleanest planning anchor, and the full case gives the widest buffer. Traffic and ticket size rise faster than fixed payroll, so margin expands.

Planning cases only; actual results will move with traffic, pricing, and staffing mix.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean neighborhood launch	$79K	$15K	$45K	80.5%	$18K	Small cushion; a slow week can wipe out profit.
Base stabilized service	$182K	$32K	$59K	82.7%	$92K	Healthy cushion; break-even risk is manageable.
Full high-traffic format	$331K	$50K	$82K	85.0%	$199K	Wide cushion; fixed costs are covered easily.

What breaks the wine bar’s break-even plan?

Stress test

Here’s the quick math: the plan clears break-even with about $184K of cushion on $786K revenue. But a 15% sales drop, a 5-point margin hit, or 10% higher fixed costs can wipe that out fast.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$558K	$184K cushion	Base case clears break-even with room to spare.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue falls 15% to $668K.	$558K	$89K cushion	A softer weeknight mix cuts the buffer in half.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise 10% to $494K.	$614K	$139K cushion	Rent or payroll creep pushes break-even up fast.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin drops 5 points to 75.5%.	$595K	$144K cushion	Discounting or spoilage makes each sale work less.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls to $668K, margin drops to 75.5%, and fixed costs rise to $494K.	$654K	$11K cushion	One weak month leaves almost no room for error.

Can this wine bar clear break-even before you sign the lease and fund the build-out?

Founder checklist

Only if the lease, staffing, and opening spend still work against the model’s break-even load. Year 1 needs about $55.8K a month in sales to cover roughly $44.9K of monthly fixed cost at an 80.5% contribution margin, and the cash trough hits Month 11.

1Lease load$44.9K/mo

Add the $10K rent to the modeled payroll and overhead, because the monthly fixed stack reaches about $44.9K before a single extra pour is sold.

2Break-even sales$55.8K/mo

Your Year 1 demand forecast is about $78.6K a month, so the site has to keep enough traffic and check size to stay above the break-even line.

3Margin stack80.5% CM

Keep ingredients, supplies, card fees, and promo spend at 19.5% of sales, or the contribution margin falls and break-even moves out.

4Labor ramp9.5 FTE

Hire to weekday demand, not weekend peaks, because Year 1 staffing totals 9.5 FTE and payroll runs about $29.5K a month.

5Cash cushion$404K

Protect at least $404K of cash, because the model bottoms out in Month 11 before payback shows up.

6Build-out spend$625K

Keep the $625K build-out and equipment spend, plus the $15K opening inventory, outside monthly break-even so setup cash does not blur the operating test.