Wine Cork Recycling Service Break-Even: About $77K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $12.6K/mo Base overhead

Contribution margin 82.3% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $71.0K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 10 First profit month

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against break-even for a wine cork recycling service.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue has to cover direct costs before anything is left for fixed costs. $ Low demand High demand Variable expenses These are direct collection and logistics costs that rise as volume grows. $ Low direct cost High direct cost

Money available to cover fixed costs $44,400 $54,000 revenue - $9,600 variable expenses

Margin ratio

82%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead the service must cover before profit starts. $ Light overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed and which move with sales in a cork collection business?

Cost classification

Break-even is only reliable when each expense follows the right behavior. Fixed bills set the monthly floor, while route, bin, labor, and marketing steps decide how fast revenue turns into margin.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Office Rent and Facilities	Fixed	Use $4,500/month as a stable overhead load from Month 1 through Month 60.	Spreading rent per customer and making break-even look easier at low volume.
Software Platform Maintenance and Hosting	Fixed	Use $2,000/month as recurring platform overhead within the current planning range.	Treating hosting as a pure usage item before any tiered usage data exists.
Insurance and Compliance	Fixed	Use $1,200/month as required operating overhead before contribution margin pays down fixed burn.	Leaving compliance out until later, which understates the revenue needed to break even.
Vehicle Fleet Maintenance and Fuel	Semi-variable	Start with $3,500/month, then watch route density because more pickups can add fuel and repair pressure.	Treating route fuel and maintenance like they scale perfectly with each account.
Collection Container Manufacturing and Deployment	Variable	Model at 8.5% of revenue in the first year, falling to 6.5% by Year 5.	Calling bins fixed and missing the cash drag from new customer deployments.
Logistics and Transportation Costs	Variable	Model at 9.2% of revenue in the first year, improving to 6.8% by Year 5.	Assuming route miles, pickups, and processing move in a clean straight line.
Staff Wages	Semi-fixed	Model payroll in hiring steps by role and year; support grows from 1.0 FTE to 3.0 FTE by Year 5.	Treating route labor and support payroll as fully variable per pickup.
Marketing Spend	Semi-fixed	Use the planned budget step of $180,000 in the first year, rising to $420,000 by Year 5.	Using customer acquisition cost alone and ignoring the committed annual spend.

How does break-even change from lean to full routes in a wine cork recycling service?

Scenario table

The gap closes as routes get fuller. CM ratio is the share left after variable costs, so the lean case still loses about $19k a month, the base case sits at break-even, and the full case turns positive.

Planning cases only; actual results will move with route density, fuel, and customer mix.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch routes	$53.7k	$9.5k	$63.2k	82.3%	-$19.0k	Still below break-even; the monthly gap stays wide.
Base break-even routes	$77.0k	$13.6k	$63.4k	82.3%	$0	This is the Month 10 break-even point.
Full route network	$118.3k	$19.3k	$77.9k	83.7%	$21.0k	Fuller routes spread overhead and create a cash cushion.

What pushes a wine cork recycling service below break-even?

Stress test

The first-year run rate is about $53,700 a month, so the plan starts below the $63,200 base. If pickup density slips, fixed overhead rises, or logistics and contamination lift costs, cash pressure shows up fast.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$63,200	$9,500 gap	Month 10 break-even only works if route density holds.
Revenue shortfall	Pickup contracts land below plan, cutting monthly revenue.	$77,000	$23,300 gap	Fewer contracts widen the cash gap fast.
Fixed-cost increase	Monthly overhead rises above the $63,200 base.	$69,500	$15,800 gap	Higher rent, fleet, or staffing can erase the cushion.
Margin pressure	Logistics and contamination push variable costs above the current 17.7% load.	$82,000	$28,300 gap	Fuel, labor, or unusable corks squeeze contribution.
Combined pressure	Pickup volume falls and transport costs rise at the same time.	$94,000	$40,300 gap	Lower collections plus higher transport keep cash negative longer.

Can signed collection routes support the fleet buy and cash burn before you commit?

Founder checklist

Confirm the route plan, pricing, and staffing before you sign leases or order vehicles. This model breaks even in Month 10, but cash bottoms at $263K in Month 14, so the launch has to hold through the gap.

1Route demand$77K/mo

Verify signed monthly collection contracts can get near $77K in monthly revenue before you buy the fleet, because that is the route density the model needs.

2Space load$4.5K/mo

Check that sorting and storage can fit inside the $4.5K monthly office and facilities spend before you lock the lease.

3Unit margin82.3% CM

After 8.5% container costs and 9.2% logistics, each dollar keeps about 82.3 cents, so pricing and route density have to hold.

4Staffing ramp$370K/yr + $120K

Make sure the Year 1 salary load and the $120K vehicle buy line up with route density, or trucks will sit idle while payroll keeps running.

5Launch CAC$180K / $450 CAC

Test that $180K of Year 1 marketing can still win customers at a $450 CAC, or the route build will stall before break-even.

6Cash floor$263K

Keep $263K of cash through Month 14, because the model low point comes after break-even in Month 10.