Wine Store Break-Even Revenue: $286K Monthly Sales Target

Fixed costs $22.9K/mo Overhead plus payroll

Contribution margin 80% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $28.6K/mo Monthly revenue target

Break-even timing Month 38 Model breakeven point

Break-even calculator

Test whether monthly wine shop sales cover direct costs and fixed overhead.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue This is the sales base that has to cover direct costs and overhead. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These are direct costs that rise as sales go up. $ Low costs High costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $50,400 $63,000 revenue - $12,600 variable expenses

Margin ratio

80%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead the gross profit must cover. $ Lower overhead Higher overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed, variable, or semi-fixed in a wine shop break-even model?

Cost classification

Break-even depends on putting each expense in the right bucket. Misclassifying inventory purchases or card fees as fixed overhead can make the Month 38 break-even point look safer than it is.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Commercial Lease	Fixed	Include $4,500 in monthly overhead before calculating contribution needed to break even.	Treating rent as sales-linked when it stays stable across normal monthly volume.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Include the $600 base in overhead, with room for usage increases from longer hours and events.	Modeling the full amount as fixed even when traffic and events raise usage.
Cleaning Services	Semi-fixed	Include $300 in monthly overhead, then step it up when traffic requires more service.	Keeping cleaning flat after visitor volume rises materially.
Wholesale Wine & Accessory Cost	Variable	Deduct 12% of first-year revenue from sales to calculate contribution margin.	Putting inventory purchases into fixed overhead instead of reducing margin per sale.
Event Material Cost	Variable	Deduct 2% of revenue tied to event activity before covering overhead.	Treating event supplies as general overhead rather than sales-linked expense.
Marketing & Promotions	Variable	Deduct 4% of first-year revenue because spend scales with customer acquisition and sales push.	Locking marketing as a fixed monthly line even when it flexes with revenue goals.
Payment Processing Fees	Variable	Deduct 2% of revenue because card fees rise directly with sales volume.	Putting card fees into fixed overhead, which overstates contribution margin.
Store Manager, Retail Staff, Event Coordinator, and Owner Operator	Semi-fixed	Include payroll as operating overhead, then step it up as staffing levels increase by year.	Modeling payroll as fully variable when headcount changes in planned staffing steps.

How does break-even change from lean Year 1 to base Year 3 to full Year 5?

Scenario table

Lean Year 1 is well below break-even, base Year 3 sits on the edge, and full Year 5 has a wide cushion. Higher traffic and a better sales mix lift the contribution margin from 80% to 86%.

Planning assumptions only; actual traffic, basket size, and costs can move these results.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean Year 1 store	$7.0K	$1.4K	$22.9K	80%	-$17.2K	Still below break-even; traffic must rise.
Base Year 3 store	$34.1K	$5.6K	$28.3K	83.5%	$0.1K	Right on the line; small shifts can flip profit.
Full Year 5 store	$92.2K	$12.9K	$28.3K	86%	$51.1K	Comfortable cushion; break-even risk drops.

What breaks the break-even plan if traffic, margin, or payroll slips?

Stress test

Here’s the quick math: the model starts with about a $203K gap to break-even, and cash bottoms at $68K in Month 37. So the real risk is slow traffic, weaker repeat buying, and payroll creep before Month 38.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	Year 1 fixed costs stay at $229K and contribution margin holds at 80.0%.	$286K	$203K gap	The plan needs a fast sales ramp.
Revenue shortfall	Traffic and conversion stay at the opening-year pace, so revenue sits near $83K a month.	$286K	$203K gap	There is little room for slower demand.
Fixed-cost increase	Retail and event staffing lift fixed costs from $229K to $283K.	$339K	$256K gap	Payroll growth pushes break-even higher.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin, the share left after direct costs, slips from 83.5% to 80.0%.	$354K	$271K gap	Discounts or higher input costs widen the gap.
Combined pressure	Conversion stays low, repeat orders slow, payroll rises, and markdowns hit margin.	$354K	$271K gap	Cash falls to $68K in Month 37, so cuts may hit before Month 38.

What should the founder verify before signing the lease and ordering opening stock?

Founder checklist

Treat the lease, first inventory buy, and payroll plan as a break-even test, not a leap of faith. If the traffic, conversion, and cash runway do not support Month 38 breakeven, delay the commitment.

1Demand proof8.0% conv

Check that Year 1 traffic, from 30 Monday visitors to 120 Saturday visitors, can really turn visitors into buyers at the 8.0% conversion rate.

2Lease load$4.5K/mo

Make sure the site can carry $4,500 rent inside $6.2K of monthly fixed overhead before payroll, because the lease has to fit the traffic you can actually pull.

3Launch spend$104K

Get the alcohol license timing clear before Month 1 build-out, then lock supplier terms before the $20K inventory buy, because total launch spend is about $104K.

4Contribution80% CM

Check that the mix still leaves about 80% contribution after 12% wholesale, 2% event material, 4% marketing, and 2% payment fees.

5Payroll load$16.7K/mo

Hire only when sales can cover the Year 1 payroll load of about $16.7K a month, and decide now whether the owner’s $70K pay stays in the model.

6RunwayMonth 38

Keep at least $68K available through Month 37, because the model does not reach breakeven until Month 38.