Winery Break-Even Analysis: $627K Monthly Revenue Target

Fixed costs $22.5K/mo Base overhead

Contribution margin 84% After variable cost

Break-even revenue $62.7K/mo Cover target

Break-even timing Month 1 Launch month

Break-even calculator

Use this to test monthly wine revenue against direct bottle costs and the fixed overhead the winery has to cover.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the cash pool that pays direct costs and then fixed overhead. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses Direct costs rise with each bottle, including grapes, barrels, bottles, yeast, filtering, and bottling. $ Low costs High costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $111,457 $120,833 revenue - $9,376 variable expenses

Margin ratio

92%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead the margin has to cover before profit. $ Small base Large base

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which winery expenses stay fixed, and which move with bottle sales?

Cost classification

For break-even, grapes, packaging, and cellar labor must reduce contribution margin before rent, payroll, and compliance get covered. If tasting room payroll or base utilities are pushed below the line, Month 1 break-even can look cleaner than cash reality.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Vineyard lease, $5,000/month	Fixed	Include in monthly break-even overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Treating the vineyard lease as avoidable until wine sales ramp.
Winery facility rent, $8,000/month	Fixed	Include in monthly break-even overhead before testing unit volume targets.	Excluding rent from break-even because production is still scaling.
Property and liability insurance, $2,500/month	Fixed	Include in fixed monthly overhead because it does not move with bottles sold.	Modeling insurance as a percentage of revenue.
Licensing and compliance fees, $1,200/month	Fixed	Include in monthly break-even overhead as a required operating expense.	Treating compliance as optional because sales have not ramped yet.
Base utilities, $3,500/month, plus water, cooling, and glycol usage	Semi-variable	Put the $3,500 base amount in monthly overhead and usage-linked items in contribution margin.	Putting all utilities in fixed overhead and overstating bottle margin.
Grapes, oak barrels, bottles, corks, labels, and packaging	Variable	Deduct these from revenue when calculating contribution margin per bottle.	Leaving packaging or barrel-linked inputs out of variable expense.
Winemaker, viticulturist, tasting room manager, and cellar hand payroll	Semi-fixed	Include core payroll in monthly break-even; add staffing steps when headcount rises, such as cellar hands reaching 2.0 FTE in Year 4.	Treating tasting room payroll as optional until foot traffic builds.

How does break-even change across lean, base, and full winery setups?

Scenario table

Break-even rises as the winery adds sales payroll and fixed overhead, but revenue grows faster at each scale point. Lean clears the line first; base and full add cushion, though the full case needs tighter capacity control.

Planning assumptions only; actual results will move with yield, pricing, and sales mix.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean winery scenario	$82,917	$13,490	$52,500	83.7%	$16,926	Clears break-even, but the cushion is the thinnest.
Base winery scenario	$120,833	$19,224	$62,083	84.1%	$39,527	Absorbs added sales payroll and widens the cushion.
Full winery scenario	$162,167	$25,095	$67,917	84.5%	$69,155	Has the widest cushion, but capacity discipline matters most.

What breaks the winery break-even plan first?

Stress test

The base case has a cushion, but a 15% sales dip plus higher fixed and variable costs can erase it fast. Grapes, packaging, and slower tasting room traffic are the main warning signs.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$62,700	$16,926 cushion	Base case clears break-even with room.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue falls 25% to about $62,188.	$62,700	$429 gap	Sales slip just below break-even.
Fixed-cost rise	Fixed costs rise 10% to $57,750 a month.	$69,000	$11,676 cushion	Overhead eats most of the cushion.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise 20%, cutting contribution margin to about 80.5%.	$65,200	$14,229 cushion	Grape and packaging inflation lifts the floor.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 15%, fixed costs rise 10%, and variable expenses rise 20%.	$71,700	$1,000 gap	This is where cash turns tight fast.

Can this winery carry Month 1 costs before you sign the lease?

Founder checklist

Don't sign the lease until Month 1 cash, the $52.5K monthly fixed load, and the 83% contribution margin still hold. The model says break-even starts in Month 1, but the launch only works if you can fund the $790K build and move 24,000 bottles in Year 1.

1Launch demand24,000 bottles

Verify the tasting room and bottle sales plan can move Year 1 volume across five wines, because full production spend only works if bottles sell fast enough.

2Equipment stack$790K capex

Verify the tanks, press, crusher, barrels, bottling line, tractor, and tasting room build can be funded before opening, since that cash goes out before sales come back.

3Fixed load$52.5K/mo

Verify Month 1 can carry the $5,000 vineyard lease, $8,000 facility rent, and $30,000 Year 1 payroll, because fixed cost starts before wine revenue is stable.

4Margin check83% CM

Verify bottle-level contribution stays near 83% in Year 1, so gross profit can cover fixed burn instead of getting swallowed by grapes, barrels, and packaging.

5Cash cushion$1.208M

Verify opening cash reaches the model's minimum of $1.208 million in Month 1, because that is where the cash low sits and a shortfall would stall the launch.

6Capacity ramp42,500 bottles

Verify the team and line can scale from Year 1's 24,000 bottles to Year 5's 42,500, with the added sales hire and heavier cellar and tasting room staffing.