Do not lock in stock, storage, or hiring until the $18, $45, and $85 tiers prove buyers will pay, CAC stays near $12, and the early cash burn still fits the model. Here’s the quick math: Year 1 is a loss year, so break-even only works if margin, demand, and runway all hold.
1Tier Mix$39.50 unit / $47.40 AOVVerify customers will buy across the $18, $45, and $85 tiers, because the Year 1 blend only works if weighted unit price stays near $39.50 and average order value holds near $47.40.
2Margin Floor80.1% CMCheck that sourcing, packaging, shipping, and card fees stay near 19.9% of sales, so contribution margin remains about 80.1% before fixed overhead.
3Fixed Load≈$19.7K/moMake sure the full fixed base, including the $2,200 warehouse rent, does not outrun order volume before extra storage or more overhead gets added.
4Fulfillment RampMonth 6Check order flow before the fulfillment coordinator starts in Month 6, and keep a simple returns path ready because limited-dexterity customers may need extra help.
5Cash Runway$414KFund the Year 1 loss of -$190K and Year 2 loss of -$173K so cash still reaches the $414K minimum need in Month 36.
6CAC Test$12 CACDo not scale the $24K Year 1 marketing budget until paid acquisition really lands near $12 per customer, or the launch math breaks fast.