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- 30+ Business Plan Pages
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Key Takeaways
- Securing the $585 million initial CAPEX and managing the -$554 million minimum cash requirement are the primary financial hurdles addressed in the first steps of the plan.
- A successful business plan must project aggressive revenue growth, targeting $154 million in Year 1 revenue leading to a projected Year 1 EBITDA of $487 million.
- Effective cost management is crucial for profitability, requiring strict monitoring of high variable expenses, particularly utilities which are projected to consume 60% of revenue.
- The 7-step planning process must rigorously validate local demand to support the 5-year attendance goal of reaching 250,000 day pass visits by 2030.
Step 1 : Define the Concept and Investment Thesis
Concept Anchor
This step defines the core offering, which anchors the entire investment thesis. It forces clarity on the unique selling proposition before crunching attendance numbers. A fuzzy concept means investors won't trust your $585 million capital ask. It sets the stage for all subsequent operational planning, defintely.
Summary Focus
To build the summary, lead with the differentiators that justify the price tag. Mention the state-of-the-art themed zones and premium services like mobile food ordering. Define the core demographic—families and young adults—and tie that directly to the $585 million required CAPEX. This initial framing is crucial for buy-in.
Step 2 : Analyze Market and Attendance Projections
Validate Market Share
You must ground your attendance goals in reality by analyzing regional competitors first. Honestly, if you don't know what the established parks are doing, your projections are just wishes. Setting the 2026 Day Pass target at 150,000 confirms market viability for the initial $154 million revenue projection. This number directly supports the massive $585 million capital need. If the market can't absorb 150k visits, the investment thesis fails fast.
Plan the Growth Ramp
Justifying the 5-year growth trajectory to 250,000 visits by 2030 requires more than just hoping for more good weather. This means you need a strategy to add 100,000 more annual visits after Year 1. That jump from 150,000 to 250,000 visitors is how you reach the projected $227 million revenue mark. You defintely need a clear plan for capturing that extra volume, perhaps by extending operating days.
Step 3 : Structure Operations and Fixed Costs
Defining Headcount
You need to nail down your fixed operating structure before opening the gates. For 2026, this means budgeting for 7 core management roles and 80 seasonal staff FTEs (Full-Time Equivalents). This staffing plan directly drives your baseline expenses. Honestly, getting this right avoids massive cash burn during the initial months before you hit your 150,000 projected visits. This overhead is the cost of keeping the lights on, regardless of ticket sales.
Calculating the Monthly Burn
Your fixed overhead for lease, insurance, and maintenance is set at $320,000 per month. This number is your break-even anchor. Here’s the quick math: $320,000 monthly spend equals $3.84 million annually just to exist. Since your 2026 revenue projection is $154 million, this fixed cost is manageable, but only if attendance hits targets. If onboarding those 80 seasonal workers takes longer than planned, payroll efficiency drops defintely fast.
Step 4 : Develop Pricing and Revenue Streams
Pricing Anchors
Setting your initial price points anchors customer value perception for the entire season. We establish the $60 Day Pass and the $150 Season Pass now. These figures directly influence initial adoption rates against regional competitors. If you price too low, you lose margin; too high, and you scare off the core family market.
Ticket sales are just the start. You must aggressively forecast ancillary revenue streams, like Food, Merchandise, and Rentals. For 2026, we project these streams alone will hit $39 million. This non-ticket income needs operational planning just as much as setting the gate price does.
Modeling Ancillary Uplift
Use your projected 2026 attendance target of 150,000 day visitors to test the viability of that $39 million ancillary goal. This isn't just about selling hot dogs; it demands high-value add-ons like cabana rentals or premium experiences to justify the spend.
Here’s the quick math: $39,000,000 divided by 150,000 visits equals $260 in ancillary spend required per guest. That's a very tall order for a single day visit. You must defintely map out how group sales and high-margin rentals will bridge that gap, or the total $154 million revenue forecast for 2026 is at risk.
Step 5 : Calculate Variable Costs and Contribution Margin
Variable Cost Scaling
Variable costs dictate how much money you keep from every ticket sold or every soda purchased. These expenses scale directly with attendance and ancillary sales volume. If you don't accurately model these rates, your break-even point moves constantly, defintely hiding operational risk. This step defines the floor for profitability.
We must calculate the total variable cost percentage against projected 2026 revenue of $154 million. This calculation determines the contribution margin (revenue minus variable costs), which must cover your $320,000 monthly fixed overhead.
Modeling The Cost Load
To execute this, aggregate the stated variable cost percentages applied to revenue. Food and Beverage (F&B) Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) is 49%. Merchandise COGS is 13%. We also include variable operational expenses: Utilities at 60% and Marketing at 50%.
Summing these inputs yields a total variable cost rate of 172% (49% + 13% + 60% + 50%). This means that based strictly on these inputs, costs exceed revenue by 72% before fixed costs are even considered. You need to clarify if Utilities and Marketing are truly variable at these high rates, or if these percentages apply only to specific revenue buckets.
Step 6 : Build the 5-Year Financial Forecast
Forecast Growth & Returns
You need to map out the full journey from launch revenue to exit potential. This forecast locks in the capital expenditure (CAPEX) requirements against projected returns. We project total revenue climbing from $154 million in 2026 to $227 million by 2030. However, the initial EBITDA calculation of $487 million in Year 1 seems unusually high relative to the revenue base, which needs immediate scrutiny.
Forecasting isn't just about hitting revenue targets; it’s about validating the investment thesis. If the model shows a negative Internal Rate of Return (IRR), that means the project, as currently modeled, won't earn back its initial investment cost at an acceptable rate. This signals a fundamental mismatch between the $585 million CAPEX requirement and the expected cash flow.
Validate Key Metrics
That reported negative Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is a major red flag signaling the initial $585 million CAPEX investment won't generate adequate returns over the projection period. You must immediately reconcile the $487 million Year 1 EBITDA figure against operating costs detailed in Step 3 ($320,000 monthly overhead) and variable costs from Step 5.
If the IRR remains negative, the model suggests the park won't cover its cost of capital, defintely requiring a major pricing or attendance adjustment. Focus on the growth rate between 2026 and 2030; that ~$73 million revenue increase needs to drop straight to the bottom line to offset the heavy upfront spend.
Step 7 : Determine Funding Needs and Risk Mitigation
Funding and Cash Buffer
You must secure funding for the $585 million capital expenditure (CAPEX) budget before breaking ground on the water park. This massive outlay demands a significant cash cushion to manage the long construction timeline. The model shows a -$554 million minimum cash requirement, which covers pre-opening losses and initial operational runway until steady state. Getting this financing locked down defines your go/no-go decision point.
Mitigation Levers
Protect the investment by front-loading risk management now. Safety protocols need immediate funding, perhaps earmarking 2% of CAPEX for specialized training and compliance audits upfront. Insurance must cover both construction liability and post-opening operational risks, defintely securing umbrella policies early. Always build a 15% contingency buffer into the construction schedule to absorb inevitable delays.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Initial capital expenditure (CAPEX) for construction and setup totals $585 million; you must secure funding to cover the minimum cash need of -$554 million by June 2026;