Aqua Cycling Break-Even Analysis: $40K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $20.6K/mo Year 1 base

Contribution margin 80.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $25.5K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 1 Launch month

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs to see where this aqua cycling studio breaks even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Use this as the sales base that covers direct costs and then fixed overhead. $ Lower sales Higher sales Variable expenses These rise with sales, like payment fees, supplies, and sales-linked costs. $ Lower cost Higher cost

Money available to cover fixed costs $685,950 $807,000 revenue - $121,050 variable expenses

Margin ratio

85%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base that contribution margin has to cover. $ Lower fixed Higher fixed

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which aqua cycling expenses are fixed, variable, or step up as the studio grows?

Cost classification

Break-even is already Month 1 in the model, but only if fixed commitments stay separate from volume-linked fees. Misclassifying the $6,500 lease or 8.0% referral commissions can make contribution margin and required members look cleaner than reality.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Commercial Studio Lease ($6,500/month)	Fixed	Include the full monthly lease before calculating required contribution margin.	Treating rent as if it rises only when class volume rises.
Pool Heating and Utilities ($2,200/month)	Fixed	Model as a recurring monthly commitment across the planning range.	Putting all pool spending into per-class variable expense.
Janitorial and Towel Service ($1,200/month)	Fixed	Carry as monthly overhead needed to operate the studio.	Linking the full amount directly to revenue growth.
Professional Liability Insurance ($450/month)	Fixed	Keep in fixed overhead because it does not move with bookings in the model.	Dropping insurance from break-even because it feels administrative.
Pool Chemicals and Filtration Supplies (4.5% of first-year revenue)	Variable	Deduct from revenue before measuring contribution margin.	Classifying all pool upkeep as fixed facility overhead.
Credit Card and Booking Fees (4.0% of first-year revenue)	Variable	Apply as a percentage of sales because fees move with paid bookings.	Using gross revenue as if payment fees do not exist.
Marketing and Referral Commissions (8.0% of first-year revenue)	Variable	Reduce contribution margin by the commission rate tied to sales.	Treating percentage-based referral spend like a flat ad budget.
Staff Instructors ($42,000 salary, 2.0 FTE in Year 1 to 6.0 FTE by Year 5)	Semi-fixed	Add instructor labor in staffing steps as capacity grows.	Modeling every instructor dollar as a per-class expense.

How does break-even change from a lean launch to a base ramp and a full ramp?

Scenario table

Higher occupancy and more billable days lift revenue faster than variable costs, so the break-even cushion widens from lean to full ramp. Capex and cash reserves still sit outside operating break-even.

Planning assumptions only, not guarantees; actual results can move with fill rates and labor mix.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Year 1 lean launch	$143.5k	$28.0k	$31.9k	80.5%	$83.6k	Revenue clears the ~$39.7k operating break-even line, so risk is low.
Year 2 base ramp	$378.2k	$66.2k	$36.9k	82.5%	$275.1k	Revenue clears the ~$44.7k operating break-even line with a wider cushion.
Year 3 full ramp	$807.0k	$121.1k	$41.8k	85.0%	$644.1k	Revenue clears the ~$49.2k operating break-even line with the strongest buffer.

What breaks first in the break-even plan for an aqua cycling studio?

Stress test

Base case has a wide cushion, but the first break point is lower attendance. If annual sales slip toward $500K, or if lease, utilities, and payroll rise, the break-even line moves fast.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$397,000	$1,038,000 cushion	Strong cushion; demand is the watch item.
Revenue shortfall	Annual revenue falls to $500,000 as attendance softens.	$397,000	$103,000 cushion	Class fill drops, but the model still stays above break-even.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise 10% from higher lease, utilities, and payroll.	$436,000	$999,000 cushion	The break-even floor moves up, led by studio overhead.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise to 24.5% of revenue as referral spend and booking fees grow.	$423,000	$1,012,000 cushion	Paid traffic and booking fees eat margin before sales growth does.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls to $500,000 while fixed costs rise 10% and variable expenses rise to 24.5%.	$465,000	$35,000 cushion	Lower demand and higher coverage leave very little room.

Can you prove the studio can cover the pool buildout before you sign the lease and staff up?

Founder checklist

Only move ahead if the Year 1 price mix, occupancy plan, and cash cushion hold together. The model shows fast break-even on paper, but Month 2 still needs $870K of minimum cash, so the opening test is demand plus operating control.

1Studio Lease$6.5K/mo

Confirm the lease and pool setup before you sign, because the fixed rent starts before the first class can pay it back.

2Price Test$199 / $149 / $220

Test sales at the Year 1 prices for unlimited, eight-class, and ten-class packs, because modeled variable costs run about 19.5% of revenue and contribution is about 80.5% before fixed costs and payroll.

3Fill Plan45% / 26 days

Map the class schedule to 26 billable days and a 45% occupancy target, because empty slots hit break-even fast in a class-based studio.

4Base Overhead$10.8K/mo

Verify insurance at $450 and music at $150 are live, and keep monthly fixed overhead at $10.8K before payroll so the base burn stays predictable.

5Payroll Load$21.1K/mo

Lock instructor and front desk coverage before selling peak-time classes, because Year 1 payroll is about $253.5K a year, or $21.1K a month.

6Cash Buffer$870K / Month 2

Keep minimum cash above $870K through Month 2, and only open after booking, payment, towel, cleaning, and cancellation flows are live across the $260K buildout.