Brewpub Break-Even Analysis: About $18K Monthly Sales

Fixed costs $3.8K/mo Base overhead

Contribution margin 83.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $4.6K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 2 Model break-even

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against break-even for a brewpub.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the cash coming in each month before direct costs. $ Slow month Busy month Variable expenses These are direct costs that rise with sales, like ingredients and payment fees. $ Tight costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $90,101 $105,387 revenue - $15,286 variable expenses

Margin ratio

85%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base that contribution margin has to cover. $ Lean overhead Bigger payroll

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses stay fixed, and which move with sales at an on-site brewing pub?

Cost classification

Break-even is only as good as the cost labels behind it. Treat Month 1 rent, wages, ingredient percentages, and card fees correctly, and the Month 2 break-even result is easier to test against real sales.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Commissary Kitchen Rent	Fixed	Use $1,500 per month from Month 1 through Month 60.	Spreading rent by cover and hiding the true monthly hurdle.
Truck Lease/Loan Payment	Fixed	Use $1,000 per month as fixed operating overhead.	Treating the payment as volume-based because busy months feel easier.
Owner/Operator	Fixed	Use $60,000 per year, or $5,000 per month, at 1.0 FTE.	Leaving owner pay out when it must support household cash flow.
Food Ingredients	Variable	Model as a sales-linked percentage: 10.0% in the first year, falling to 8.0% by the mature year.	Using one flat dollar amount even when covers rise by weekday.
Beverage Ingredients	Variable	Model as a sales-linked percentage: 2.0% in the first year, falling to 1.5% by the mature year.	Ignoring pour, spoilage, and recipe control when sales mix changes.
Payment Processing Fees	Variable	Apply to sales volume: 2.5% in the first year, falling to 1.7% by the mature year.	Booking card fees as fixed software instead of per-sale drag.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Start with the listed $200 per month, then test higher usage as production and service volume rise.	Holding utilities flat while adding brewing, kitchen, and service load.
Service Staff	Semi-fixed	Step payroll up with staffing: 1.0 FTE in the first year to 3.0 FTE by the mature year.	Scaling labor one cover at a time instead of in hiring steps.

How does break-even shift from a lean brewpub night to a busier base case and a fuller traffic mix?

Scenario table

Lean traffic sits at the break-even line, while Year 1 clears it and the fuller Year 5 case builds a much wider cushion. The 20.0% beverages and sides mix and 10.0% catering share help margin as volume grows.

Planning figures only; actual results will move with traffic, pricing, labor, and mix.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean break-even case	$18,024	$2,974	$15,050	83.5%	$0	At the line, so small demand dips turn into loss.
Year 1 base case	$79,950	$13,192	$15,050	83.5%	$51,708	Comfortable cushion; Year 1 traffic covers overhead.
Year 5 fuller-traffic case	$164,797	$20,435	$26,508	87.6%	$117,854	Strong cushion; higher traffic more than covers fixed costs.

What breaks first if weekday traffic softens or costs rise?

Stress test

Year 1 has room: $79,950 of monthly revenue versus about $18,024 to break even, so the plan carries a $61,926 revenue cushion. The real risk is a weak weekday start or early cost creep, especially staffing, utilities, and generator spend.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$18,024	$61,926 cushion	Healthy cushion, but it still depends on strong weekend traffic.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue runs $10,000 below plan.	$18,024	$51,926 cushion	A $10,000 miss cuts about $8,350 of contribution at Year 1 margin.
Fixed cost	Fixed overhead rises by $1,000 a month.	$19,220	$60,730 cushion	Every $1,000 of extra fixed cost lifts break-even by about $1,198.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise by 1 point.	$18,242	$61,708 cushion	One margin point costs about $800 a month at planned Year 1 sales.
Combined pressure	Revenue is $10,000 lower, fixed overhead rises $1,000, and variable expenses rise by 1 point.	$19,455	$50,495 cushion	The plan still clears break-even, but the margin of safety gets much thinner.

What should a founder verify before signing the lease and buying equipment for this brewpub?

Founder checklist

Before you sign anything, test the model against the traffic, ticket size, and cash floor that make break-even believable. If weekday covers, weekend pull, or the $839K Month 2 cash need slip, the commitment is too early.

1Weekday covers80-120/day

Confirm Monday through Thursday covers of 80, 90, 100, and 120 in Year 1 before you add labor, because that is the base traffic the model is counting on.

2Weekend pull180/250/200

Verify Year 1 Friday, Saturday, and Sunday demand of 180, 250, and 200 covers, since that peak flow is what makes the opening month worth staffing.

3Ticket size$15/$20

Contribution margin, the cash left after variable costs, depends on keeping midweek AOV at $15 and weekend AOV at $20, or the break-even math gets thin fast.

4Fixed load$15.1K/mo

Here’s the quick math: $1,500 rent, $3,800 of monthly non-payroll overhead, and $135,000 of Year 1 payroll add up to about $15,050 a month before variable costs.

5Peak capacity250 covers

Make sure the kitchen and service flow can handle 250 covers on Saturday without long waits, because that is the day staffing usually runs ahead of sales.

6Cash floor$839K floor

Hold opening cash above the $839,000 Month 2 minimum and clear licenses and food permits before equipment spend, or buildout pressure can hide an operating plan that is not ready.