Cold-Pressed Juice Bar Break-Even Analysis: $42K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $34.7K/mo Overhead plus salaries

Contribution margin 82% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $42.3K/mo Revenue at zero

Break-even timing Month 4 Cash turns flat

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to see how monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs push a cold-pressed juice bar to break even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the sales line before direct costs. $ Slow month Peak month Variable expenses These are direct costs that rise with sales, like ingredients and packaging. $ Low spend High spend

Money available to cover fixed costs $47,560 $58,000 revenue - $10,440 variable expenses

Margin ratio

82%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead the margin must cover. $ Lean base Heavier base

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which juice bar expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even is only reliable if produce, bottles, delivery, and event labor sit below revenue as variable costs, while rent and salaries stay in fixed overhead. Misclassify them, and Month 4 breakeven can look safer than it is.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Commercial Kitchen Rent	Fixed	Hold at $5,000 per month in fixed overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Spreading rent across orders and hiding the true monthly hurdle.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Use the $800 monthly base, then test higher usage as production load rises.	Treating power and water as flat when pressing volume grows.
Base Marketing Spend	Semi-fixed	Model the $1,200 monthly base, then step it up only when the growth plan changes.	Letting marketing move with every order without a campaign plan.
Salaried Operating Roles	Fixed	Keep forecast FTE salaries in fixed overhead, including the $85,000 General Manager and $75,000 Head Chef.	Blending salaried staff with event labor and overstating variable margin.
Food & Beverage Ingredients	Variable	Apply 13.0% of first-year revenue, then use the lower forecast rates by year.	Burying produce inside fixed overhead and overstating contribution margin.
Packaging & Supplies	Variable	Apply 2.0% of first-year revenue, then use the forecast rates through the mature year.	Forgetting bottles, lids, and labels in unit economics.
Delivery & Logistics	Variable	Apply 1.5% of first-year revenue, then use the forecast rates by year.	Treating delivery as only fixed vehicle overhead.
Event Staff Labor	Variable	Apply 1.5% of first-year revenue, then use the forecast rates as volume scales.	Putting event labor into fixed salaries and missing order-level labor load.

How does break-even shift as the juice bar moves from a lean launch to full scale?

Scenario table

Here’s the quick math: more orders and higher ticket size lift contribution faster than rent and salaried labor, so break-even gets easier as volume and mix improve.

Planning assumptions only; actual results will move with traffic, ticket mix, waste, and staffing use.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch case	$66.2k	$11.9k	$34.7k	82.0%	$19.7k	Above break-even, but weekday dips still matter.
Base growth case	$165.1k	$28.2k	$35.0k	82.9%	$101.8k	Clearest Month 4 break-even path with room for more staff.
Full scale case	$377.7k	$61.6k	$37.5k	83.7%	$278.6k	Widest cushion, if prep capacity and mix stay tight.

What breaks the break-even plan for a cold-pressed juice bar?

Stress test

At $662k monthly revenue and an 82% contribution margin, break-even sits near $423k, so the model starts with about a $239k cushion. The real risks are slow weekday traffic, waste, packaging inflation, wage creep, and a rent step-up above $5,000.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change from the Year 1 plan.	$423,171	$238,829 cushion	Healthy start, but the buffer still depends on steady traffic.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue falls 40% to about $397,000 per month.	$423,171	$26,000 gap	A deeper sales miss pushes the plan below break-even.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed costs rise by $10,000 per month.	$435,366	$226,634 cushion	Rent or payroll creep adds about $12,200 to break-even.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise 1 point to 19% of revenue.	$428,395	$233,605 cushion	Produce waste or packaging inflation cuts profit fast.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 40%, fixed costs rise $10,000, and variable expenses rise 1 point.	$440,741	$43,541 gap	Slow traffic plus higher costs can wipe out the buffer.

Is the juice bar ready to sign the lease and buy equipment?

Founder checklist

Don't sign the lease or buy the big equipment until the model clears the Month 2 cash low of $809k and still reaches break-even in Month 4. The test is simple: demand, staffing, and fixed rent all have to hold at plan.

1Launch demand172/wk

Verify launch marketing, with $1,200 base spend and $5,000 of initial materials, can fill the first-year load of 172 weekly orders, because break-even depends on bookings, not just walk-ins.

2Lease load$10.2K/mo

Verify the site can carry $10.2k a month in fixed overhead, including $5,000 rent and the $1,500 vehicle lease, before food or delivery costs hit.

3Payroll ramp$24.5K/mo

Verify Year 1 staffing stays at 1.0 GM, 1.0 head chef, 0.5 sales manager, 1.5 kitchen staff, and 1.0 driver, or about $24.5k a month, because pulling headcount forward will stretch payback.

4Contribution floor82% CM

Verify ingredient, packaging, delivery, and event labor costs stay at 13%, 2%, 1.5%, and 1.5% of revenue; that keeps variable costs at 18% and leaves 82% to cover fixed costs.

5Prep capacity172/wk

Verify cold storage, batch prep, and dispatch can handle 172 weekly orders before you add more volume, because spoilage and overtime can erase the margin fast.

6Cash cushion$809K

Verify you can fund the Month 2 cash low of $809k while carrying build-out, equipment, vehicles, and opening marketing; with break-even at Month 4 and payback in 14 months, thin cash is the main failure point.