Cookie Business Break-Even Analysis: $43K Monthly Sales Needed

Fixed costs $35.1K/mo Overhead base

Contribution margin 82% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $43.0K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 3 Model payback point

Break-even calculator

Test whether monthly sales cover direct costs and the fixed cost base for a cookie business.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the cash coming in each month before direct costs. $ Lower sales Higher sales Variable expenses These are direct costs that rise with sales, like ingredients, packaging, and payment fees. $ Lower direct cost Higher direct cost

Money available to cover fixed costs $152,661 $183,707 revenue - $31,046 variable expenses

Margin ratio

83%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base break-even has to cover. $ Lean overhead Heavier overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which bakery expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even gets noisy when you blend rent, labor steps, and ingredient spend into one margin. Keep recurring overhead separate from per-order and per-batch costs so the Month 3 break-even target rests on costs that actually move with sales.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Raw Ingredients	Variable	Model at 12.0% of revenue in the first year, then lower to 10.0% by Year 5.	Mixing $55,000 of kitchen equipment into monthly ingredient margin.
Packaging Supplies	Variable	Apply 2.0% of revenue in the first year for boxes, bags, labels, and carryout supplies.	Treating packaging as fixed even when weekend order volume rises.
Credit Card Fees	Variable	Use 1.8% of revenue in the first year because the fee moves with paid sales.	Leaving payment fees below gross margin and overstating contribution.
Delivery Platform Fees	Variable	Use 2.5% of revenue in the first year for delivery-linked sales volume.	Applying the fee to all sales if only some orders use delivery.
Rent	Fixed	Carry $6,500 per month as recurring overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Dividing rent by each order and calling it a variable expense.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Start with the $1,200 monthly base, then review usage as ovens, refrigeration, and service hours scale.	Assuming utilities stay flat when production days get busier.
Payroll	Semi-fixed	Use $25,333 per month in first-year payroll, then step it up as FTE staffing increases.	Treating added staff as if labor rises one-for-one with each order.
Licenses & Permits	Fixed	Carry $100 per month as stable recurring overhead across the planning period.	Putting permits into variable margin instead of monthly overhead.

How does break-even change from a lean Year 1 cookie shop to a base Year 3 run and a full Year 5 build?

Scenario table

Break-even gets safer as sales scale because revenue grows faster than both variable costs and overhead. The lean case has the smallest cushion, while the full build gives the widest buffer.

Planning figures only. These are modeled assumptions, not guarantees.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean Year 1 shop	$108,680	$19,886	$35,133	81.7%	$53,660	Positive cushion, but the tightest case.
Base Year 3 shop	$183,647	$31,034	$40,217	83.1%	$112,396	Best balance; break-even stays well covered.
Full Year 5 build	$286,347	$44,384	$44,133	84.5%	$197,830	Largest cushion, even with higher staffing.

What pressures the cookie business’s break-even plan?

Stress test

The shop clears break-even now, with Year 1 monthly revenue of $108,680 against $43,002 needed. The danger is erosion from weaker weekday sales, weekend ticket drops below $38, or higher ingredient, packaging, delivery, or rent costs before Month 3.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$43,002	$65,678 cushion	The plan has room, but drift still matters.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue falls by $53,658 from the plan.	$43,002	$12,020 cushion	A sales miss this large still clears break-even, but barely.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed monthly costs rise by $1,000.	$44,226	$64,454 cushion	Rent or labor creep moves break-even up fast.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise by 1 percentage point.	$43,535	$65,145 cushion	Ingredient, packaging, or delivery fees tighten the buffer.
Combined pressure	Monthly revenue falls by $53,658, fixed monthly costs add $1,000, and variable expenses rise by 1 point.	$44,759	$10,263 cushion	Sales, overhead, and margin pressure together leave little room for error.

Can this cookie shop clear break-even before you sign the lease and hire the full crew?

Founder checklist

Yes, but only if the Year 1 order flow and ticket sizes hold up in real service. The model reaches break-even in Month 3, yet it still needs about $812K of cash by Month 2 and $162K of launch capex before the monthly math is safe.

1Oven Load735/wk

Verify the kitchen can bake, box, and hand off 735 weekly orders in Year 1 before you sign the lease, because that is the full load the model assumes.

2Weekday Base405/wk

Prove weekday demand can reach 405 orders a week on its own, because the plan should not depend on Saturday and Sunday to stay alive.

3Weekend Lift330/wk

Confirm Saturday and Sunday can still produce 330 orders a week, since that higher-volume window carries a big share of the revenue mix.

4Ticket Mix$28 / $38

Check that midweek baskets average $28 and weekend baskets $38, because a lower ticket will pull the break-even point past Month 3.

5Margin Check81.7% CM

Keep variable costs near 18.3% of sales so contribution stays around 81.7%; with fixed costs of about $35.1K a month, break-even lands near $43,002 in sales.

6Cash Cushion$812K + $162K

Keep $812K available by Month 2 and treat the $162K of launch capex as separate from monthly break-even math, because both have to be funded before payback shows up.