Corrugated Box Manufacturing Break-Even: About $126K Monthly

Fixed costs $38.2K/mo Plant overhead base

Contribution margin 71% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $120.2K/mo Monthly sales target

Break-even timing Month 2 Model break point

Break-even calculator

Use this to test monthly revenue against variable costs and fixed overhead, then see how close the plant is to break-even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the margin available to cover fixed costs. $ Early ramp Peak scale Variable expenses These are direct costs that rise as output and sales grow. $ Lean direct High direct

Money available to cover fixed costs $941,867 $1,365,667 revenue - $423,800 variable expenses

Margin ratio

69%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead the plant has to cover. $ Light overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which corrugated box manufacturing expenses stay fixed, and which move with sales volume?

Cost classification

Break-even is only useful if each expense follows its real behavior. Put leases and base software in fixed costs, unit materials in variable costs, and salaried staffing in step changes as the plant scales.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Manufacturing Facility Lease	Fixed	Include $25,000 per month in monthly overhead before calculating unit break-even.	Spreading rent across units too early and hiding the cash floor.
General Liability Insurance	Fixed	Include $2,500 per month as a steady operating charge from Month 1 to Month 60.	Treating insurance as volume-linked even when the monthly premium is stable.
ERP and Inventory Software	Fixed	Include $1,800 per month in fixed overhead for the relevant planning range.	Moving software into variable overhead because it supports production tracking.
Salaried Plant and Admin Payroll	Semi-fixed	Model payroll in staffing steps as full-time equivalent headcount rises by role and year.	Treating all labor as variable when salaried supervision stays due at low volume.
Recycled Liner, Fluting, Adhesive, and Straps	Variable	Apply per-unit material amounts to each box type before gross margin and break-even math.	Using one average material rate across small, large, printed, and heavy-duty boxes.
Direct Machine Labor	Variable	Apply the per-unit labor amount by product, from $0.20 on small boxes to $1.00 on heavy-duty boxes.	Blending direct machine labor with salaried managers and overstating fixed overhead.
Outbound Freight and Logistics	Variable	Model as a revenue-linked selling expense, starting at 4.5% in the first year and falling to 3.7% in the fifth year.	Leaving freight out of contribution margin because it sits below gross profit.
Factory Power, Maintenance, and Utilities	Semi-variable	Track usage-linked plant overhead separately from the rent base so higher production absorbs real operating load.	Calling all plant overhead fixed and missing power, maintenance, heating, fuel, and waste swings.

How does break-even change from lean to full corrugated box output?

Scenario table

Higher volume spreads the same lease, payroll, and plant overhead across more boxes, so break-even improves from lean to full. Variable costs rise with sales, but revenue grows faster in this model, which widens the cushion.

Planning assumptions only; actual mix, pricing, and input costs will move break-even.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean Year 1 run	$646k	$188k	$85k	70.9%	$373k	Still above break-even, but the cushion is the thinnest.
Base Year 3 run	$1.37M	$362k	$110k	73.5%	$894k	Highlighted case: volume starts to spread overhead more cleanly.
Full Year 5 run	$2.79M	$683k	$138k	75.5%	$1.97M	Strongest cushion; higher output absorbs fixed costs best.

What breaks the break-even plan for a corrugated box plant?

Stress test

The base plan clears break-even with room: first-year monthly revenue averages about $646K against a roughly $126K break-even. The weak spots are freight, board and labor spikes, plus overtime or slow custom print throughput.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$126K	$520K cushion	Strong first-year cushion.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue falls 10% to about $581K.	$126K	$455K cushion	Demand softness cuts room to absorb shocks.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed overhead rises 10% to about $94K per month.	$139K	$507K cushion	Higher plant overhead lifts the floor.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin drops 5 points to 62.6%.	$136K	$510K cushion	Freight and overtime can erase profit fast.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10%, margin slips 5 points, and fixed overhead rises 10%.	$150K	$432K cushion	Overtime dependence and delayed board supply are the first red flags.

Can a corrugated box plant clear break-even before you sign the lease and buy the corrugator?

Founder checklist

Before you commit, prove that demand, pricing, and cash can hold the line. The Year 1 plan averages about $646K/month, so the real test is staying above the ~$126K break-even floor and carrying the $455K cash trough in Month 6.

1Demand floor$126K/mo

Verify committed monthly orders clear the break-even floor and that freight lanes are lined up, or high-volume quotes will not turn into cash.

2Board supply540K units

Verify Year 1 board supply is locked for 540,000 units across five box types, because the mix only works if paper, fluting, and print inputs stay steady.

3Contribution77.6% CM

Check that the Year 1 price ladder from $8.50 to $30.00 still leaves about 77.6% contribution margin, which is sales left after variable costs, after direct materials, labor, freight, and commissions.

4Overhead load$38.2K/mo

Make sure lease, admin rent, software, taxes, insurance, and telecom stay near $38.2K a month, because that fixed load hits every month before payroll.

5Staffing ramp$565K/yr

Verify the Year 1 salaried team can cover production and sales with about $565K of payroll, or throughput will slip before revenue scales.

6Cash runway$455K

Keep at least $455K of cash through Month 6, and finish electrical upgrades before the high-speed corrugator goes live.