Disability Care Service Break-Even Analysis: $45K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $9.4K/mo Core overhead

Contribution margin 72% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $13.1K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 9 Model break-even

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against the monthly break-even point.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets how much margin is available to cover fixed costs. $ Light volume Heavy volume Variable expenses Direct care, materials, travel, and payment fees rise with client billing. $ Tight spend High spend

Money available to cover fixed costs $23,400 $32,500 revenue - $9,100 variable expenses

Margin ratio

72%

Covers fixed costs

$8,900 short

Fixed monthly costs Rent, insurance, software, and staff pay sit in this monthly base. $ Lean setup Larger team

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which disability care service expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even is only useful if each expense behaves the way the model says it does. Here, Year 1 variable costs start at 28% of revenue, while fixed and semi-fixed payroll set the monthly hurdle.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Direct Caregiver Wages	Variable	Model at 12% of Year 1 revenue because the source data ties it directly to service volume.	Treating all caregiver labor as fixed, or adding payroll tax rates not provided in the model.
Client-Specific Program Materials	Variable	Model at 2% of Year 1 revenue; materials rise as active client work grows.	Burying materials in office supplies and understating the margin drag from each new client.
Specialized Training for Direct Caregivers	Variable	Model at 1% of Year 1 revenue since training scales with direct care activity in the assumptions.	Treating training as a one-time launch item and missing ongoing caregiver readiness needs.
Marketing & Advertising Spend	Variable	Use 8% of Year 1 revenue in break-even, then check the separate $25,000 first-year budget for cash planning.	Double counting the 8% revenue load and the annual marketing budget in the same break-even line.
Client Transportation Costs	Variable	Model at 3% of Year 1 revenue because trips rise with client service activity.	Calling it fixed just because the model also has separate fleet maintenance.
Payment Processing Fees	Variable	Model at 2% of Year 1 revenue; fees move with collections and billed services.	Ignoring fees in break-even because each transaction fee feels small.
Office Rent	Fixed	Use $3,500 per month across the relevant planning range.	Spreading rent as a percent of revenue and hiding the fixed monthly cash burden.
Salaried Admin Roles	Semi-fixed	Start with Year 1 salaried roles at $275,000 per year, or about $22,917 per month, then step up as added roles begin.	Treating case management, coordination, and admin payroll as per-client variable labor.

How does break-even shift across lean, base, and full staffing for this disability care service?

Scenario table

Higher revenue per client helps, but fixed payroll rises faster than margin. So the break-even client count still moves up as the model adds staff before demand is fully proven.

Planning assumptions only; actual break-even will move with staffing, client mix, and timing of collections.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch mix	$2,430	$680	$32.3k	72%	-$30.6k	About 19 active clients cover overhead.
Base staffed mix	$2,723	$709	$42.3k	74%	-$40.3k	Roughly 21 active clients cover overhead.
Full scaled mix	$3,368	$728	$64.4k	78.4%	-$61.8k	About 24 active clients are needed to break even.

What pushes the break-even plan off track for this care service?

Stress test

Break-even is fragile here because small misses stack fast. A $5,000 monthly revenue miss, a $1,000 monthly overhead bump, or a 1-point margin drop all push required revenue higher, and the combined hit can add about $50,000 of monthly pressure.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$449,000	$0 gap	Break-even sits at the model base.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue runs $5,000 below plan.	$485,000	$36,000 gap	A small top-line miss quickly widens the hole.
Fixed-cost pressure	Monthly overhead rises by $1,000.	$463,000	$14,000 gap	Extra overhead raises the revenue bar right away.
Margin pressure	Variable costs lift and margin drops 1 point to 71%.	$455,000	$6,000 gap	Even one margin point moves break-even higher.
Combined pressure	Revenue misses by $5,000 a month, overhead rises $1,000, and margin drops 1 point.	$499,000	$50,000 gap	All three hits together can erase the cushion fast.

What should a founder verify before taking on the full Year 1 fixed-cost base?

Founder checklist

Before you lock in rent, vans, and payroll, prove you can carry the Year 1 fixed base with about 19 active customers and 285 billable hours a month. If those numbers and the Month 14 cash floor do not hold, the break-even plan is too thin.

1Demand base19 clients

Confirm you can sign about 19 active customers at launch; at 15 billable hours each, that is 285 monthly hours, and it must come from the $25,000 marketing plan at a $750 CAC.

2Overhead base$32.3K/mo

Check that office rent, insurance, software, and salaried leadership plus admin stay near $32.3K a month in Year 1; that is the fixed load you must cover before growth starts to help.

3Unit margin72% CM

Use Year 1 variable costs at 28% of revenue, which leaves a 72% contribution margin; if travel, materials, or payment fees rise, break-even revenue moves above about $44.9K a month.

4Care capacity285 hrs/mo

Verify caregiver onboarding and scheduling can support 285 monthly billable hours at launch; if the team cannot fill that load, you will miss the customer count needed for break-even.

5Early capex$145K

Confirm the first capex wave totals $145K before you buy the vans, set up the office, build the platform, and finish accessibility upgrades; those cash outflows hit before steady revenue does.

6Cash runway$698K

Hold enough cash to reach the $698K minimum at Month 14, because Year 1 EBITDA is negative $106K and payback takes 25 months, so early growth has to be funded.