Ghost Kitchen Break-Even Analysis: $765K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $22.0K/mo Monthly base

Contribution margin 81% Left after costs

Break-even revenue $27.2K/mo Revenue needed

Break-even timing Month 3 Model break-even

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against break-even for a delivery-only kitchen.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the cash left to cover fixed costs after direct expenses. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses Use food, delivery, and payment costs that rise with sales. $ Light costs Heavy costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $148,898 $184,967 revenue - $36,069 variable expenses

Margin ratio

80%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs Use the monthly cost base that stays in place each month. $ Low fixed High fixed

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which delivery-only kitchen expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even gets unreliable when order-linked items sit in fixed overhead, or stable rent gets treated like usage. Classify each line by behavior first, then test the Month 3 break-even against real order volume.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Rent Payments	Fixed	Use $15,000 per month from Month 1 through Month 60.	Spreading rent per order and hiding the true monthly hurdle.
Utilities	Semi-fixed	Start with the $2,500 monthly base, then review when kitchen hours or equipment use steps up.	Treating all utilities as directly variable with sales.
Food Ingredients	Variable	Apply 14.0% of revenue in the first year, declining to 12.0% by the fifth year.	Using a flat dollar amount instead of tying food usage to sales.
Beverage Ingredients	Variable	Apply 3.0% of revenue in the first year, declining to 2.0% by the fifth year.	Blending beverage margin into food ingredients and losing mix visibility.
Marketing & Promotions	Variable	Model at 1.5% of revenue in the first year, then taper to 1.0% by the fifth year.	Budgeting promotions as fixed when spend rises with order targets.
Credit Card Processing Fees	Variable	Apply 1.0% of revenue across all five years.	Leaving payment fees below gross margin and overstating contribution.
Payroll	Semi-variable	Use $475,000 per year in the first year, then update as full-time equivalents change with volume.	Holding staffing flat while orders grow from slow weekdays to peak weekends.
Packaging and Marketplace Commissions	Variable	Add separate order-linked inputs before relying on break-even; no source amount is provided here.	Ignoring delivery packaging and commission drag because they are not listed.

How does break-even shift from a lean to a full ghost kitchen setup?

Scenario table

Higher volume lifts revenue faster than fixed cost, so the cushion widens from lean to full. The lean case already clears break-even, base is stronger, and full has the biggest gap because labor and rent spread over more sales.

Planning assumptions only; delivery commissions and packaging are not split out here, so actual cushion can move with channel mix.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean ghost kitchen	$1.85M	$361k	$616k	80.5%	$874k	Clears break-even, but the cushion is still the thinnest.
Base ghost kitchen	$2.58M	$479k	$645k	81.4%	$1.45M	Break-even risk drops because revenue grows faster than cost.
Full ghost kitchen	$4.50M	$720k	$770k	84.0%	$3.01M	Strongest cushion; the model can absorb more demand swings.

What pushes this ghost kitchen past break-even?

Stress test

The base case has room, but the cushion gets thin fast if revenue slips, payroll ramps early, or delivery costs stay off-book. Stack all three, and the break-even floor moves up while the real cushion shrinks hard.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$765,000	$1,085,000 cushion	Model has room, but the shock cushion is limited.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue falls to 41.3% of Year 1 run-rate.	$765,000	$0 cushion	Any further drop turns losses on.
Fixed-cost pressure	Year 5 fixed costs plus payroll total $770,000.	$917,000	$933,000 cushion	Payroll added early raises the floor.
Margin pressure	Add marketplace commissions and packaging missing from the model.	$957,000	$893,000 cushion	Hidden delivery drag cuts the cushion fast.
Combined pressure	Lower volume, higher labor coverage, delivery fee drag, and food inflation hit together.	$957,000+	$893,000 cushion	This is the tightest case.

What should a ghost kitchen founder verify before signing the lease and funding the build-out?

Founder checklist

Before you sign the lease or fund the build-out, prove the kitchen can carry 740 weekly orders with the Year 1 cost stack and a $650K cash cushion through Month 2. If either slips, breakeven moves out fast.

1Demand Proof740 orders/wk

Use the weekly forecast to confirm real order volume can reach this level, because break-even only works if demand is steady across the week.

2Lease Load$15.0K/mo

Verify the monthly rent still works once utilities, software, insurance, cleaning, and admin costs are added, because fixed space cost hits before sales do.

3Margin Mix80.5% CM

Check that food ingredients, beverage ingredients, marketing, and card fees stay at 19.5% of sales, so contribution margin holds at 80.5% before fixed overhead.

4Payroll Ramp$475K/yr

Make sure the Year 1 labor plan can handle prep, cook, pack, and pickup flow, because the model already assumes $475,000 of payroll.

5Cash CushionMonth 2

Keep at least $650,000 of cash through Month 2, since the model does not reach breakeven until Month 3 and early cash burn is the real risk.

6Launch FlowLaunch ready

Confirm menu photos, delivery radius, pickup staging, and order throttling before launch, so demand does not outrun the kitchen on day one.