Vegan Protein Powder Break-Even Analysis: Month 16 Target

Fixed costs $4.45K/mo Core overhead

Contribution margin 81% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $5.49K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 16 Model break-even

Break-even calculator

Use this to test how monthly sales, direct costs, and overhead compare with break-even for a vegan protein powder business.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue This is the cash coming in each month before costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These are direct costs that rise with each sale, like ingredients, packaging, shipping, and payment fees. $ Light costs Heavy costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $11,100 $13,800 revenue - $2,700 variable expenses

Margin ratio

80%

Covers fixed costs

$7,400 short

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead your margin has to cover, even before profit starts. $ Lean overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed and which move with sales for a plant-based protein powder business?

Cost classification

Break-even gets unreliable when sales-driven expenses get mixed with overhead. Keep the 19.0% first-year variable load separate from $4,450 in monthly fixed overhead, payroll steps, and the $80,000 first-year marketing budget.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Raw Ingredients & Manufacturing	Variable	Apply as 9.0% of first-year revenue because it rises with product sales.	Treating manufacturing as fixed overhead and overstating gross margin.
Packaging & Lab Testing	Variable	Apply as 3.0% of first-year revenue; each sale carries packaging and testing load.	Parking lab work in overhead and missing unit-level drag.
E-commerce Platform & Payment Fees	Variable	Apply as 2.5% of first-year revenue tied to checkout volume.	Using a flat software line and hiding payment-fee pressure.
Shipping & Fulfillment	Variable	Apply as 4.5% of first-year revenue because orders drive fulfillment activity.	Ignoring shipping in contribution margin when order volume scales.
Virtual Office, Software, Legal, Utilities, Insurance, R&D, and Admin Supplies	Fixed	Model as $4,450 per month from Month 1 through Month 60.	Spreading fixed overhead across units too early and masking cash burn.
Payroll Roles	Semi-fixed	Step in staff by model period: Founder from Month 1, Marketing Manager from Month 13, Customer Service from Month 19, Operations from Month 25, and Product Development from Month 31.	Modeling payroll as a smooth percentage of sales instead of hiring steps.
Annual Marketing Budget	Semi-fixed	Use $80,000 in the first year, then step up by forecast year instead of tying it directly to each order.	Putting setup spend, website build, or initial inventory into monthly contribution margin.

How does break-even change from lean launch to base scale to full scale for vegan protein powder?

Scenario table

Lean launch is close to break-even because fixed costs sit around $18.6k a month. Base and full cases add more revenue and better margin, but the higher payroll and marketing also raise the break-even line before volume catches up.

These are planning assumptions, not guarantees; break-even will move if CAC, mix, or payroll changes.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch	$23,000	$4,370	$18,617	81.0%	$13	Very thin cushion; any cost spike can push losses.
Base case, Year 2 mix	$47,200	$8,354	$32,367	82.3%	$6,479	EBITDA turns positive, but payroll and $150k marketing keep the break-even line high.
Full scale, Year 5 mix	$640,800	$89,712	$67,783	86.0%	$483,305	Scale gives a wide cushion once volume outruns the added headcount.

What pushes this vegan protein powder plan off break-even?

Stress test

The plan only has room if monthly revenue stays near $22,984 and contribution margin holds around 81%. A $1,000 revenue miss, a 1-point margin squeeze, or $1,000 of extra monthly overhead each move break-even higher fast.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$22,984	$0 gap	Base case is at break-even, so there is no cushion yet.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue lands $1,000 below the break-even run rate.	$22,984	$1,000 gap	At an 81% contribution margin, that miss leaves about $810 of monthly operating loss.
Fixed-cost increase	Monthly overhead rises by $1,000 before Month 16.	$24,219	$1,235 gap	Another $1,000 of overhead adds about $1,235 to required revenue.
Margin pressure	Ingredient and packaging costs cut contribution margin by 1 point to 80%.	$23,271	$287 gap	A 1-point margin squeeze raises break-even even if sales hold.
Combined pressure	Revenue is $1,000 light, contribution margin falls 1 point, and monthly overhead rises $1,000 before Month 16.	$24,523	$2,539 gap	Payroll before Month 16, CAC above $40, and repeat customers under 25% would make this miss hard to close.

What should you verify before locking in inventory, hiring, and marketing spend for vegan protein powder?

Founder checklist

Check the unit economics, supplier terms, and cash runway before you commit. In this model, Year 1 CAC is $40, the website build is capped at $15,000, and minimum cash need peaks at $781,000 in Month 18, so every early spend has to stay inside plan.

1Unit Margin81% CM

Keep product, packaging, fees, and shipping at the modeled 19.0% of revenue so you still have 81.0% contribution margin before fixed costs.

2Supplier Terms$20K

Lock supplier terms before the $20,000 initial inventory buy so you do not trap cash in stock before demand is proven.

3Packaging QA3.0%

Test packaging lead times and lab work before paid launch, because packaging and lab testing only stay break-even friendly at 3.0% of revenue in Year 1.

4Site Budget$15K

Keep website development inside the $15,000 build budget so fixed spend does not outrun early demand.

5CAC Check$40 CAC

Validate customer acquisition cost at or below the Year 1 assumption of $40 and stage spend against the $80,000 marketing budget before you scale paid acquisition.

6Cash Runway$781K

Protect runway because minimum cash need peaks at $781,000 in Month 18, so do not add payroll ahead of the planned ramp.