Test the booking pipeline before you lock in rent, hiring, or extra puppet inventory. The plan only works if beginner classes, workshops, and private coaching fill fast enough to cover fixed costs and the Month 2 cash dip.
1Demand Proof45% occupancyVerify beginner classes, workshops, and private coaching can reach the Year 1 occupancy target before you sign the $2,800 lease, because weak fill makes every fixed dollar harder to cover.
2Base Overhead$3.68K/moMake sure rent, utilities, insurance, hosting, booking software, and cleaning stay at $3,680 a month, because that bill starts on Month 1 and never waits for enrollment.
3Margin Check81% CMCheck that the Year 1 mix leaves about 81% after 3% materials, 5% guest fees, 8% digital ads, and 3% payment fees.
4Capacity Ramp22 days / 45%Confirm the opening schedule can use 22 billable days a month at 45% occupancy in Year 1, then climb to 60% in Year 2 before you add junior instructor payroll.
5Cash BufferMonth 2Protect the Month 2 cash trough, which the model puts at $891K, so early lease, puppet inventory, and setup spend do not strain working capital.
6Launch Demand$8.5K launchUse the $8,500 puppet launch spend as the ceiling until core slots are full and repeat bookings show up, then keep digital ads near the Year 1 8% assumption.