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Key Takeaways
- Due to high fixed operating costs of $69,000 monthly, securing immediate revenue volume is critical to achieve the projected breakeven point in just two months.
- Launching the ice rink requires securing substantial upfront capital expenditures totaling $903,000, dominated by the acquisition of the $400,000 refrigeration chiller system.
- Program Enrollment visits, commanding a high price point of $30,000, represent the most critical revenue stream for early financial success and covering base overhead.
- The financial model forecasts significant growth, projecting annual Public Skating visits to increase from 50,000 to 82,000 by 2030, leading to $1.244 million in EBITDA by Year 5.
Step 1 : Define Revenue Streams and Pricing
Set Initial Price Points
Finalizing your entry prices dictates immediate cash flow potential. You must map out who else is selling access to ice time locally. This competitive analysis informs your starting price structure. For example, setting Public Skating at $1,500 and Program Enrollment at $30,000 depends entirely on what the local market can absorb right now. Get this wrong, and volume projections fail fast.
Price Validation Tactics
Validate these initial rates against existing facility utilization figures. If nearby rinks run at 90% capacity year-round, you can push the higher end of your range. If saturation is low, these figures might need adjustment before launch. To be fair, if your competitor charges $1,200 for a similar program, starting at $30k is defintely risky without a massive differentiator.
Step 2 : Model Fixed and Variable Costs
Fixed Base Reality
You need to know your minimum monthly burn rate before you sell a single ticket. This fixed base dictates how much volume you need just to keep the lights on. For the rink, that baseline is defintely hefty.
Set aside $69,000 monthly for the non-negotiables: rent, utilities, and insurance. If you underestimate this, you hit cash flow trouble fast. This number must be locked down before Q1 2026 starts.
Variable Cost Levers
Variable costs scale with sales, so managing them directly impacts your margin. Focus hard on the concessions stand, as that’s where you control contribution on ancillary sales. You can’t just hope volume covers it.
We project Food Beverage COGS (Cost of Goods Sold) at 25% in 2026. If you sell $100 in snacks, $25 goes to the supplier. The lever here is pushing ancillary revenue where COGS might be lower or fixed fee based.
Step 3 : Establish Core Management Team
Core Leadership Hires
Getting leadership right dictates operational execution. You need proven managers before scaling staff. This sets the culture and controls the high fixed costs identified earlier. Honestly, this is where many early-stage businesses fail to plan.
Hiring the General Manager at $105,000 and the Operations Manager at $85,000 locks in $190,000 of annual base salary overhead immediately. This must be covered by early revenue streams, so plan these hires carefully around your CAPEX drawdowns.
Staffing Volume
Focus on scaling instructional staff based on projected demand from your visit volume forecasts. You must budget for 25 FTE Skating Instructors for 2026. This headcount drives service quality and your capacity for Program Enrollment revenue.
Since instructors are variable labor tied to lessons, ensure their compensation structure aligns with controlling the $69,000 monthly fixed operating expense base. Don't let variable labor inflate your fixed overhead before you hit the 2-month breakeven target.
Step 4 : Secure CAPEX Funding
Fund Critical Assets
Securing Capital Expenditures (CAPEX) funding sets the operational foundation for the rink. You need $903,000 total capital budgeted to launch Glacier Glide Arena successfully. Delaying funding risks missing critical acquisition windows for essential machinery. If you don't secure this capital now, the Q1 2026 opening date is defintely threatened. This spending dictates your physical capacity to create ice.
This step is about locking in long-lead items before overhead starts stacking up. You must confirm the financing structure that covers this initial outlay before Step 2 costs begin accruing. It’s a hard stop if the cash isn't ready when the vendors call.
Prioritize Ice Infrastructure
Focus your immediate financing efforts on the two biggest items needed for ice creation. The $400,000 Refrigeration Chiller System must be secured for delivery in Q1 2026. Equally important is the $200,000 Zamboni Ice Resurfacer acquisition, also slated for Q1 2026.
These two assets represent $600,000, or 66% of your total required CAPEX. Get these purchase orders locked down early to ensure smooth scheduling for installation. Missing the Q1 2026 window means delaying your entire opening schedule.
Step 5 : Project 5-Year Visit Volume
Volume Trajectory
Hitting volume targets dictates profitability timing. The 50,000 Public Skating visits planned for 2026 must scale to 82,000 by 2030 just to support overhead. This growth validates the initial investment in the $400,000 Refrigeration Chiller System. If volume lags, covering the $69,000 monthly fixed operating expense base becomes a cash drain. We need this steady increase to hit the 2-month breakeven goal.
Scaling Enrollment
Program Enrollment growth is a high-margin lever. Doubling enrollment from 2,000 to 4,000 visits by 2030 means these higher-value sessions are becoming a bigger part of the mix. Since programs carry enrollment fees, focus marketing on retaining these participants past the first session. If onboarding takes 14+ days, churn risk rises defintely.
Step 6 : Calculate Breakeven and Cash Flow
Breakeven Confirmation
Confirming your breakeven timeline dictates how aggressively you need to raise capital right now. We are targeting a 2-month operational break-even point. This means revenue must cover variable and fixed costs within 60 days of opening the doors. It’s a tight window, but necessary for early momentum.
The model shows the tightest liquidity point, or the minimum cash requirement, lands at $133,000. This cash trough occurs in September 2026. If your current funding doesn't comfortably cover operating expenses until that date plus a safety buffer, you’re undercapitalized for the near term.
Cash Runway Check
Your primary focus must be managing the burn rate against that September 2026 low point. The fixed operating expense base is $69,000 monthly before considering payroll or COGS. You need runway that extends well past that $133k minimum, not just to it.
Also, remember the $903,000 in Capital Expenditures (CAPEX) must deploy before you hit peak volume. If onboarding takes longer than expected, churn risk rises defintely. Align your funding drawdowns precisely with the chiller and resurfacer acquisition dates in Q1 2026.
Step 7 : Identify Key Financial Levers
Ancillary Revenue Drive
Your primary path to profit isn't just ticket volume; it's maximizing spend per skater. With fixed overhead at $69,000 monthly, relying only on admission fees leaves you vulnerable. Increasing non-ticket revenue directly improves your contribution margin, which is crucial for reaching that 2-month breakeven target. This focus determines if you cover operating costs comfortably or if you constantly chase volume.
Hitting the $300k Goal
To hit $300,000 in ancillary revenue in Year 1, you need about $25,000 per month. Based on 50,000 projected visits for 2026, this requires an average ancillary spend of just $0.50 per visit ($25,000 / 50,000 visits 30 days). Since Food Beverage COGS is only 25%, the net contribution from this $0.50 is high. If skate rentals add another $0.10 net contribution, you are defintely on track.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Total initial CAPEX is $903,000, largely driven by the $400,000 chiller system and $200,000 Zamboni You must also cover pre-opening wages and the $133,000 minimum cash needed by September 2026;