Revenue & Calc
Change service days, hours, throughput, utilization and bundle prices; monthly calculations allocate each sold order once and consolidate the five revenue streams.
Ghost Kitchen Financial Model Template for Excel and Google Sheets
Fully Editable
Instant Download
Professional Design
Pre-Built
No Expertise Is Needed
Fully Editable
Instant Download
Professional Design
Pre-Built
No Expertise Is Needed
Description
The Ghost Kitchen Financial Model is an Excel template for projecting orders, revenue, operating expenses and EBITDA from one delivery and takeout kitchen. Edit shared production capacity, utilization, meal prices, cost assumptions and staffing to examine how the operating plan affects financial projections.
The illustrated case covers a leased, landlord-equipped 350-square-foot kitchen with common storage in Dallas, Texas, for 2026–2030. Five mutually exclusive meal bundles share one preparation and packing line, with third-party couriers handling delivery and no dining room.
- Forecast
- 5years
- Meal bundles
- 5mutually exclusive choices
- Kitchen area
- 350square feet
WORKBOOK CONTENTS
Editable Inputs Connect Kitchen Operations to Reports
The workbook connects capacity-based sales planning with expense schedules, scenario controls and financial reporting.
COGS & OPEX and Payroll
Adjust ingredient and marketplace cost rates, fixed expenses, role salaries and annual FTE plans to evaluate the operating cost of additional orders.
Dashboard & Scenarios
Select Low, Base or High multipliers for revenue, COGS, variable expenses, fixed expenses and payroll; compare their effects on revenue, margins and EBITDA.
IS, CF, BS & Summary
Review the workbook’s declared financial statement reports together when assessing earnings, liquidity and financial position; the supplied Dallas case establishes operating results only through EBITDA.
REVENUE FORECAST
Shared Capacity and Meal Prices Drive Revenue
Revenue equals available kitchen capacity multiplied by utilization and the weighted meal price.
Each sold order contains one entree, side and beverage. The fixed allocation is 25% burger, 25% protein bowl, 20% pasta, 20% chicken and 10% residual salad, so each order uses the shared production pool once.
The selected January 31, 2026 launch date activates the full January month. Activity is zero before launch, follows each forecast year’s inputs and assumes no material seasonal pattern.
Revenue Forecast
The Revenue Forecast shows how service capacity, kitchen utilization, bundle prices and mix generate sales. Utilization rises from 35% in 2026 to 68% in 2030, while each bundle’s price increases by $0.50 annually.
2026 monthly sold orders
26 service days × 8 hours × 30 orders/hour × 35% utilization = 2,184 orders/month.
The 2026 burger, bowl, pasta, chicken and salad prices are $18, $19, $20, $22 and $17, respectively, producing a weighted price of $19.35 per order. Multiplying 2,184 monthly orders by $19.35 and 12 active months gives approximately $507,125 annual revenue.
COSTS AND STAFFING
Commissions and Staffing Shape Operating EBITDA
Revenue-linked costs, fixed overhead and staffing determine how higher utilization changes EBITDA.
COGS and Operating Expenses
The COGS and Operating Expenses report separates direct, variable and fixed costs. Ingredients, packaging and incremental spoilage total 36% of revenue; marketplace commissions, paid promotions and refunds/remakes total 23.3%, leaving 40.7% before fixed costs and payroll.
Kitchen rent starts at $4,500 per month, paid for 12 months, within 2026 fixed expenses of $87,000. Other fixed lines cover utilities, cleaning, pest and waste services, insurance, software, maintenance, bookkeeping and compliance renewals.
Payroll Forecast by Staff Role
The Payroll Forecast calculates role costs from staffing FTE and fixed base salaries. Annual-average staffing increases from 5 FTE in 2026 to 6.5 FTE in 2030, with payroll rising from $214,000 to $271,000.
The staffing plan retains one $60,000 manager, expands cooks from 3 to 4 FTE at $40,000 each, and increases packing/sanitation from 1 to 1.5 FTE at $34,000 each. These salaries are fixed annual base pay per FTE and are counted only in Payroll.
STARTUP AND FUNDING
Separate Opening Investment from Recurring Expenses
Startup assets, launch cash and working-capital inputs are distinct from annual operating costs.
Listed asset inputs include $9,000 for supplemental cooking equipment, $7,000 for refrigeration and prep tables, $5,000 for durable smallwares and shelving, and $2,000 for order tablets and networking. Installation and alterations are additional; deposits, opening permits, branding and preopening training are separate launch cash items.
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources and Uses of Funds reconciles cash sources and allocations over a selected period. The case’s estimated owner funding of $200,932 covers assets, one-time launch cash, opening inventory and three months of first-year recurring operating outflows; it is a planning reserve, not a tested peak cash requirement.
Accounts receivable and accounts payable are both set to 0 days, with inventory at 5 days. These editable controls help examine working-capital timing separately from operating earnings.
ILLUSTRATIVE FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS
The Example Reaches Positive EBITDA in 2028
The supplied Dallas scenario projects negative EBITDA in 2026 and 2027, followed by positive EBITDA from 2028.
| Year | Revenue | Operating Expenses | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $507,125 | $601,725 | −$94,600 |
| 2027 | $668,866 | $700,247 | −$31,382 |
| 2028 | $838,094 | $831,788 | $6,306 |
| 2029 | $967,974 | $940,076 | $27,898 |
| 2030 | $1,087,108 | $1,013,574 | $73,534 |
Forecasts, not historical results or industry averages; amounts are independently rounded to whole dollars, so displayed subtraction may differ by $1.
Higher utilization and bundle prices increase revenue while payroll and fixed expenses also rise. Positive 2028 EBITDA of $6,306 indicates operating earnings before depreciation, interest and taxes; it does not establish net profit, cash break-even or investment recovery.
Cash Flow Forecast
The Cash Flow Forecast separates operating, investing and financing cash movements and reconciles opening and closing cash. Review it alongside inventory, startup spending and any entered financing; the supplied operating example does not establish cash balances or funding sufficiency.
BREAK-EVEN AND FINANCING
Evaluate Cost Coverage and Investment Recovery Separately
The workbook supports distinct operating, cash and investment-return questions without implying unreported case results.
Dashboard debt controls can schedule facility amounts, launch dates, terms, rates and repayment types; CapTable records equity contributions. These functions support financing comparisons, while the illustrative funding plan assumes owner funding and no committed outside capital.
Break-Even, Payback and ROIC
The Returns report evaluates sales break-even, cash break-even, investment payback and annual ROIC. Sales break-even compares revenue with operating cost requirements, while cash break-even concerns cash generation.
Investment payback tracks recovery of invested cash; annual ROIC relates operating returns to invested capital. Positive EBITDA alone does not establish either investment recovery or a return percentage.
PLANNING FIT
Built for One Delivery and Takeout Kitchen
This structure fits operators comparing throughput, delivery-channel costs and staffing for one shared kitchen.
Use the estimated case as a starting point for your own kitchen schedule, menu prices, rent, commission arrangements and labor plan. Multiple sites, separate production pools or dining-room sales would require adapting the revenue structure.
PRODUCT QUESTIONS
Ghost Kitchen Financial Model FAQ
Key questions about the operating assumptions and the workbook’s planning scope.
What is the main sales-volume control?
Kitchen utilization controls sold orders within shared capacity; service days, hours and orders per hour set that capacity, and the meal mix allocates it once.
Does revenue include delivery fees, tips or sales tax?
No; modeled sales exclude customer tax, tips and courier delivery fees, and third-party couriers handle delivery.
Does the January 31 launch produce only one operating day?
No; the model activates the full launch month, so the selected January 31, 2026 date produces a full January of modeled activity.
Are marketplace commissions and promotions included?
Yes; estimated variable costs include commissions at 19.3%, paid marketplace promotions at 3%, and merchant refunds and remakes at 1% of revenue.
Are these assumptions verified Dallas industry averages?
No; the selected inputs are estimates for an illustrative Dallas kitchen, and companion references do not independently verify them.
Does positive EBITDA prove the investment has paid back?
No; payback depends on invested cash and subsequent cash flows, and the supplied operating forecast does not establish payback timing or annual ROIC.
What Does the Ghost Kitchen Financial Model Contain?
Financial Dashboard
KPIs, forecasts, and cash flow at a glance.
Revenue Engine
Key assumptions and calculations driving revenue forecasts.
Sources & Uses
Funding sources, spending, and closing cash.
Returns & Break-Even
Cash break-even, payback, and ROIC.
Business Valuation
DCF valuation and sensitivity analysis.
Expense Breakdown
Largest costs and spending trends.
Financial Summary
Annual and monthly financial performance.
KPI Benchmarks
Compare margins and returns to benchmarks.
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