Taco Truck Break Even Analysis: $658K Monthly Sales Target

Fixed costs $17.9K/mo Base overhead

Contribution margin 83.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $21.4K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 3 Model break-even

Break-even calculator

Test monthly taco truck revenue against variable costs and fixed overhead to see how close each case sits to break-even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the cash coming in before direct costs. $ Slow month Busy month Variable expenses Use food, promo, and payment fees that rise with sales. $ Lower costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $234,530 $274,625 revenue - $40,095 variable expenses

Margin ratio

85%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs Use monthly payroll and overhead the truck must cover. $ Lean overhead Higher overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed and which move with sales for a mobile food vendor?

Cost classification

Break-even gets distorted when sales-linked items are treated like rent, or staffing steps are treated like ingredients. Keep each expense tied to how it behaves, so Month 3 break-even is measured against real operating drag.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Food Ingredients	Variable	Use 10.0% of first-year revenue.	Don’t treat food spend as fixed.
Beverage Ingredients	Variable	Use 2.0% of first-year revenue.	Don’t bury it inside food ingredients.
Marketing & Promotions	Variable	Use 3.0% of first-year revenue.	Don’t assume launch promotion spend vanishes.
Credit Card Processing Fees	Variable	Use 1.5% of first-year revenue.	Don’t ignore payment fees on card sales.
Rent & Lease Payments	Fixed	Use $12,000 per month.	Don’t tie rent to daily sales volume.
Utilities	Fixed	Use $2,000 per month in this model.	Don’t scale the full amount with revenue.
Scheduled Wages	Semi-fixed	Use $37,083 per month in the first year, then step up with full-time equivalent count.	Don’t model every payroll dollar as variable.

How does break-even shift from a lean taco truck to a base case and a full build?

Scenario table

Higher sales raise the contribution cushion, but payroll and other fixed costs rise too. So break-even improves most when revenue grows faster than labor and overhead.

Planning cases use the provided assumptions; actual results can move with traffic, menu mix, and labor scheduling.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean taco truck	$1.30M	$214K	$549K	83.5%	$534K	Above break-even, but the cushion is tighter.
Base taco truck	$1.92M	$300K	$601K	84.4%	$1.02M	Highlighted case: break-even is covered with room to spare.
Full taco truck	$2.62M	$382K	$656K	85.4%	$1.58M	Strongest cushion and the lowest break-even risk.

What pushes the taco truck below break-even?

Stress test

Year 1 break-even is about $658K, and the base plan gets there by Month 3. The real risk is softer sales plus cost creep; that combo can cut the cushion from hundreds of thousands to about $215K.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	Base Year 1 sales and cost structure stay unchanged.	$658K	$639K cushion	Sales stay well above break-even.
Revenue shortfall	Sales fall 20%, leaving about $1.037M revenue.	$658K	$379K cushion	Demand softens, but break-even still holds.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed costs rise by $50K.	$718K	$579K cushion	Payroll or rent creep cuts room fast.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise from 16.5% to 21.5% of revenue.	$700K	$597K cushion	Higher food and fee drag trims margin.
Combined pressure	Sales fall 20%, fixed costs add $50K, and variable expenses rise to 21.5%.	$822K	$215K cushion	Cushion shrinks hard if sales and costs move together.

Is this taco truck ready to clear break-even before you commit to the truck, crew, and opening inventory?

Founder checklist

Don’t lock in the $370K capex until Year 1 demand, margin, and labor all support the model. The key test is simple: can the truck hit the daily cover plan and still protect the $684K cash floor in Month 2?

1Daily Covers30-90/day

Verify the truck can hit 30 Monday, 35 Tuesday, 40 Wednesday, 50 Thursday, 70 Friday, 80 Saturday, and 90 Sunday before you commit to the vehicle spend.

2Monthly Load$54.9K/mo

Check that fixed rent, utilities, certification, taxes, insurance, repairs, legal, and Year 1 wages can be covered by sales before food and processing.

3Margin Mix83.5% CM

Hold Year 1 ingredients at 12% of revenue and variable marketing plus card fees at 4.5%, or the contribution margin weakens and break-even moves out.

4Cash Floor$684K min

Protect the Month 2 minimum cash balance of $684K so a slow opening does not force payroll cuts or rushed menu changes.

5Core Crew10 FTE

Keep the Year 1 staffing plan at 10 full-time equivalents until sales hold above break-even in Month 3, because extra labor hits cash fast.

6Ticket Check$65 / $90

Test the $65 midweek average order value and the $90 weekend average order value before scaling prep, inventory, and labor.